John McCain and Sarah Palin should defy conventional political wisdom and start campaigning almost exclusively together, preferably in smaller town hall type settings.  I saw some of the event held in Michigan today and the dynamic of McCain/Palin taking questions from the crowd and playing off each other was effective.  The duo makes an impressive campaign team, unlike Obama and Biden, and seem to complement each other.  I know most astute political observers will say it's best to spilt up the ticket to cover more ground - and I know that has to be done to a certain extent - but I believe McCain and Palin sticking together on the campaign trail might just make a difference.  Bill Clinton bucked coventional wisdom in 1992 by picking a VP that, on the surface, appeared to be of limited political value due to their similarities.  John McCain should buck the tradition campaigning strategy and hone the tag team approach with Palin.  That may just be a winning strategy.    

John Embry Commentary

Romney's New Media Strategy

What's going on with Mitt Romney's lack of ad buys for Super Tuesday?  I've been reading on different sites today about Romney pulling back advertising but I haven't heard anything conclusive about the reasons why.  Is a different media strategy in play here, are ad buys forthcoming, or is this the beginning of the end for the Romney campaign?  Admittedly, the political landscape looks bleak for Romney right now but I hope he keeps fighting to give conservative Republicans a viable alternative to McCain.  We definitely need one.     

John Embry Commentary

McCain-Huckabee '08?

Mike Huckabee's campaign for vice-president is alive and well as his wobbly presidential campaign moves to Super Tuesday.  Why does he stay in the race when it is obvious that he has no chance of winning?  I asked my wife (a loyal Huckabee supporter) that very question and she's not sure.  Even she knows it's over.  Perhaps he likes running and is having a good time.  But I suspect that he's making his move to be John McCain's VP.  How can he do that?  Stay in the race and peel votes away from Romney?  That seems to be the game plan.  After all, Huck's managed to run an entire campaign with saying anything critical about McCain, yet he's taken several shots at Romney.  The Romney pile on continues with Huckabee leading the charge from inside the pack and Rudy, Arnold and the other so-called establishment politicians lining up behind frontrunner McCain.   So, we may be looking at a McCain-Huckabee ticket?  2008 is going to be a long year.       

John Embry Commentary

Stark Contrast: Romney v. McCain

From my vantage point Mitt Romney had another strong debate performance but will it actually matter?  Are conservative Republicans listening?  Apparently not.   I'm starting to worry about myself - much like Sean Hannity jokingly did today on the radio show.  I've been a strong conservative Republican and am having a hard time understanding how John McCain can be the better choice for the GOP.  When you see them side by side and listen to them discuss issues, it is so clear to me that Mitt Romney is the better candidate.  McCain, despite his solid position on Iraq and terrorism, is so wrong on so many other issues - from immigration to campaign finance.  He panders to liberals and delights in being the GOP media darling.  Tonight he was somewhat arrogant and condescending, while Romney appeared much more presidential.  I just don't understand many of my fellow Republicans and their embrace of McCain.  WIth McCain leading the GOP, I will have a difficult decision come November.   

John Embry Commentary

Can McCain survive double blows to his campaign?

If you asked many Republicans what would be the kiss of death for a candidate seeking their vote, learning that the New York Times has endorsed your candidate of choice would have to be at the top of the list.  Add in a defacto endorsement by Bill Clinton and it should make voting for John McCain next to impossible.  While I'm sure Independents and Democrats will crow about the New York Times' endorsement, responsible Republicans should be concerned.  If the NYT, Bill Clinton, big media, Ieft-leaning Independents, and Democrats are so excited about McCain's candidacy, then I'm pretty sure he's not the guy for me.  In a true  Republican primary, these should be death blows to McCain's campaign - regardless of how many senators and governors endorse him.  Come on Florida Republicans, don't let me down. 

John Embry Commentary

Don't take the bait, Mitt!

Facing a Mitt Romney that was closing the gap fast in the Florida polls, in part because of the voters' renewed interest in the economy, John McCain did the only thing he could do - try to change the subject.  The senator did that by throwing out the less-than-honest assertion that Romney favored a timetable withdrawal from Iraq - which is not accurate.  But McCain's comments, aided by his friends in the media, soaked up air time and a stern response from Romney precisely at the time Romney was making his move in the polls.  So, McCain was able to temporarily shift the focus from the economy to Iraq.  Obviously, that's what McCain wants because Romney is clearly winning the debate when it comes to handling the economy.  Don't take the bait, Mitt.   Keep focusing on the economy.  Of course, defend yourself against inaccurate statements like these but keep looking forward.  If Romney hangs in the race long enough, McCain will most likely self-destruct with his trademark temper and ill-informed comments.   

John Embry Commentary

 

Wrong-way Rudy

 

Rudy Giuliani, in many ways, could have been a formidable candidate in the GOP presidential primary.  I say this knowing full well that his positions on some social issues were at odds with the beliefs of rank-and-file Republicans.  But, his high-profile status after 9/11, his tough foreign policy/terrorism stance, solid fiscal conservative credentials, and his law and order governance of an almost ungovernable city could have soothed some of the concerns of social conservatives. 

However, wrong-way Rudy decided to pursue an unorthodox campaign strategy and it's getting ready to cost him dearly.  Rudy will most likely run third in Florida despite putting all his eggs in the Sunshine Basket.  In fact, if cash-strapped Huckabee was able to play full-time in Florida, it's possible that Rudy would drop to fourth. 

Unfortunately, Rudy decided to follow a doomed campaign strategy similar to that of Fred Thompson.  Hopefully, one of the many lessons to come out of the '08 campaign will be that if you're going seek your party's nomination for president, get in the race early and run hard in the early states.  Rudy could have done that and would have appeared as the gritty fighter he is.  Instead he took a pass and let Ron Paul run ahead of him much too often.  His "don't run until Florida" campaign strategy is getting ready to be judged by voters in the Sunshine State.  I have a feeling the mayor won't like the verdict.           

 

 

John Embry Commentary

 

Republicans choose Mitt!

 

Finally, Mitt Romney should get some much-needed respect for his decisive win in Michigan.  Despite his family's roots there, Mr. Romney's nine-point margin of victory is impressive.  There are also other points worth noting.  Romney struck a chord with his economic message and his "Washington is broken" mantra seems to be gaining some traction - particularly when aimed at a long-serving senator like John McCain who has been in DC since the roads were gravel.  If Romney can add a dash of empathy to his economic message, he may have a winning message.  That is unless religious biases don't come into play.  (See related blog on this site called My Man Mitt!) 
As a Republican, it's also refreshing to see that Republicans decided the Michigan Primary.  What's with these states that allow voters to cross party lines and muck up a party's nominating election?  This is crazy.  Primaries are in-house affairs and should be treated as such.  What would New Hampshire have looked like among only Republican voters?  Most polls indicated that Romney would have come out on top.  What a novel concept - Republicans choosing the Republican nominee.      

Finally, Romney's showing thus far is being trivialized by many in the MSM.  Sure, Romney had leads in Iowa and New Hampshire and then came in second.  However, his leads in those states were actually somewhat artificial in the sense that they were based on early numbers when there wasn't much competition or focus on the election.  Obviously, when more candidates got actively engaged, Romney's numbers dropped.  But, he still ran a solid second in both states and won Wyoming and has now won Michigan.  He's competing everywhere, has more votes, more delegates, a better organization, and I believe he's even raised (not his own money from his personal wealth) more money than other GOP candidate in the field. 

Is Mitt Romney the clear frontrunner for the GOP nomination?  Hard to tell but a strong case could be made for it.  It definitely seems that an increasing number of Republicans are turning to Mitt Romney as the most viable conservative candidate - something National Review has been saying for awhile now.  More Republicans now seem to be listening.        

Note:  The above column was originally published on November 7, 2007.

 

             

John Embry Commentary

 

My Man Mitt

 

With the Iowa Caucus less than two months away and a gubernatorial race under our belts in Kentucky, more attention is now turning to the presidential election of 2008.  It's about time.  With increased attention on the '08 hopefuls, maybe more Republicans will wake up and take notice of who I believe is the best candidate for the party and the country - Mitt Romney.

So far, Mr. Romney, who has already pumped millions of dollars into his campaign, is running well behind Rudy Giuliani in most national polls, though he's currently leading in Iowa and New Hampshire. 

What seems to be the problem?  On paper, Mr. Romney appears to be the ideal candidate.  He's is a solidly conservative candidate who has proven his electoral prowess by being elected governor of arguably the most liberal state in America - Massachusetts.  He is a committed family man with a wife and five sons.  He turned around the financially-floundering 2002 Winter Olympics and made it a success.  He has cut taxes and has effectively addressed the health care issue in his state.  So, what gives?  Well, the obvious "problem" with Mitt Romney, though many rank-and-file Republican voters won't admit it, is that he is a Mormon, a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. 

Did you think John F. Kennedy effectively put to rest the religious question (i.e. litmus test) during the 1960 presidential campaign by tackling the issue head-on and explaining, among other things, that Americans weren't voting for a head church leader, but rather a president?  Guess again.  Unfortunately, Mr. Romney's religious beliefs are anathema to many conservative voters who make up a significant portion of the Republican base.  They tend to stereotype Mormons as cultists, non-Christians, who practice polygamy and are generally wacko.  They won't tell you that publicly, but many feel that way privately.  Now, I'm definitely not an expert on Mormon theology, though I have read parts of The Book of Mormon and some of Brigham Young's teachings.  Do I agree with all things Mormon?  Of course not, though I do consider the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints to be a Christian-based religion, which is apparently a big leap for some folks.  Nevertheless, my choice for president does not necessarily go through the relatively narrow prism of my religious beliefs.

So, nearly 50 years after JFK battled the "Catholic" issue, Mr. Romney must confront and defend why he's a Mormon.  That's a sad predicament in a country that considers religious freedom a centerpiece of society.  In fact, it is surprising and a little disheartening that some of my fellow Republicans may agree with Mr. Romney down the line on the issues but then balk at supporting him strictly because of his religious beliefs.

As a practical Republican who would like to see the GOP keep the White House, the reluctance to embrace Mr. Romney solely because of his religion is discouraging.  As syndicated columnist Kathleen Parker pointed out in a recent column, it is Mr. Romney who has the best chance of uniting all wings of the Republican Party - something that must be done if the GOP nominee has any chance to retain the White House and stop the Hillary Clinton bandwagon, the Democratic front-runner.  Can Republicans put aside religious differences and unite behind a strong conservative candidate with solid credentials for governing?  Time will tell.

 

John Embry Commentary

 

Dismal prospects for the GOP?

 

I know that most political pundits predict that a Democrat will be in the White House next year.  Likewise, I understand that certain indicators suggest that the GOP candidate - whoever that may be - faces an uphill battle.  Nevertheless, all is not lost. 

Barack Obama, should he be nominated - appears at this point to be all talk and no substance.  He talks so much to say so little and there's probably never been anyone with his lack of experience win the presidency.  When the harsh critiques come - and they will come - what kind of candidate will he be?  Can he make it through the General Election with feel-good rhetoric wrapped around the mantra of change?  And Hillary Clinton … well there's not much to say here that hasn't already been said.  She carries baggage all the way from Little Rock to the White House.  Any true executive experience she may claim must run through her notorious husband.  Is America ready for Bill Clinton - The Sequel?  I'm not so sure.   

Republicans are lucky that the Democratic nominee will be either Obama or Clinton.  The potential weaknesses of their General Election campaigns give the GOP an opening.  However, the Republicans need to start coalescing around a candidate - preferably by the time Super Tuesday results are known.  It's also imperative that the GOP nominee selects a solid VP candidate to put together an attractive and electoral-friendly ticket.  Then, the race is on.          

John Embry Commentary

 

Fred Thompson's Community Service

 

It's not easy to figure out Fred Thompson as a presidential candidate - or in the mostly lethargic way he's run his campaign.  Finally, he showed some fire in some South Carolina and actually appeared - for a time - that he really wanted to be president.  For most of the campaign, however, Thompson has looked like someone who's running for president because he shoplifted at Wal-Mart and the judge sentenced him to community service - and his community service was to mount a campaign for president.  And he doesn't look none too happy about it. 

This is unfortunate because Mr. Thompson could have been a contender in the GOP primary.  He does have solid conservative credentials and his folksy, down-to-earth way of talking can be attractive to voters.  But, Mr. Thompson decided to let other candidates play half the game before getting into the contest.  I'm for Mitt Romney but if Thompson had gotten in earlier . . . well who knows?

John Embry Commentary

 

Polygamists, go to New Hampshire!

 

I awoke to the New Year with news that New Hampshire was now open to civil unions and a governor who was looking forward to the day when these unions could be called full-fledged marriages.  If I was a polygamist or just "living in sin" the old fashioned way, I'd be heading to the Granite State so that my lifestyle could be given legal status.  How could I be denied?  Once society ventures from the path of a traditional man-woman marriage, where does it stop?  I'm not sure but stopping at same-sex unions seems rather arbitrary.  Limiting legal recognition to same-sex couples looks somewhat judgmental - a label I'm sure the civil union crowd would not like to carry. 

 

John Embry Commentary

 

GOP Follies

 

If the conservative base of the Republican Party doesn't wake up, a moderate to liberal candidate who is out of touch with many of the rank-and-file is going to be chosen as its standard-bearer.  Despite personable qualities, Mike Huckabee is an economic liberal with a fondness for big government solutions and a penchant for class warfare.  John McCain is a true American hero but has nevertheless been a thorn in the side for most Republicans on several issues - including his frequent attacks on free speech that are disguised at campaign finance reform and his amnesty (yes, amnesty) -centered immigration views.  Fred Thompson is a true conservative but unfortunately decided to not enter the game until halftime.  Rudy Giuliani's electoral strategy is questionable at best and he's way out of step with social conservatives.  That leaves the GOP with Mitt Romney, who many in the mainstream media go out of their way to either attack outright, minimize, or ignore.  Despite some changes on a couple of issues and a few campaign missteps along the way, Mr. Romney is clearly the best choice for the GOP.  He is both a social and economic conservative who is right on ALL of the issues Republicans hold dear.  What is the problem?  Are social conservatives secretly holding Romney's Mormonism against him?  By not embracing Romney, conservative Republicans are running the risk of giving their nomination to someone who does not truly represent the base of the party.  On core conservative principles across the board, there is no comparison between Romney, Huckabee, or McCain.  Mitt is the man but we're running the risk of blowing it.